Auto volume review: 2Ws shine in Nov; TVS, Bajaj Auto, Eicher among firms with double-digit domestic wholesale growth

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In November, the Indian auto industry witnessed a wide divergence in wholesale growth across segments, with two-wheeler (2W) volumes rising 31% YoY. The growth was 3-7% for passenger vehicles (PVs) and tractors, while trucks saw a decline of around 4%.

According to global brokerage Jefferies’ estimates, domestic two-wheeler (2W) wholesales rose 31% YoY in November (YTD-FY24: 9%). Registrations in the month also grew 19% YoY, partly boosted by the later timing of the festive season this year. The combined Sep-Nov registrations were up a healthy 8% YoY (YTD-FY24: +7%).

Double-digit growth in domestic wholesales was observed across various 2W OEMs in November, with volumes increasing by 50–77% YoY for TVS Motor Company and Bajaj Auto and 14–25% YoY for Royal Enfield (Eicher Motors), Honda, and Hero MotoCorp.

The share of electric vehicles (EVs) in 2Ws dipped slightly by 100 basis points (MoM) to 4.1% in November. 2W exports experienced a marginal 2% YoY decline and a 5% MoM drop, the brokerage noted.

Also Read: Auto sector: Motilal Oswal prefers two-wheelers over PVs; here are its top picks

The brokerage estimates showed that passenger vehicle (PV) wholesales rose a modest 3% YoY in November (YTD-FY24: 8%). Registrations exhibited better performance with an 18% YoY increase, benefiting from the delayed festive season. Combined registrations from September to November grew by 11% YoY (YTD-FY24: +7%).

In November, domestic wholesales witnessed a robust 32% YoY growth for Mahindra & Mahindra, while Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai India reported only 1-3% YoY growth. The growth was flat for Tata Motors.

Truck wholesales faced a decline of around 4% YoY in November, according to Jefferies’ estimates, while registrations grew by just 1% YoY. E-way bills indicated a positive trend, rising by 30% YoY in October (+18% CYTD), suggesting strong freight demand (November data is awaited).

Also Read: 26.21 lakh vehicles sold in Oct 2023, highest ever PVs sold in the month: SIAM

The brokerage pointed out that tractor wholesales grew by approximately 7% YoY in November after two consecutive months of decline (YTD-FY24: -3%). However, tractor registrations witnessed a sharp 21% YoY drop in November, with September to November registrations down by 10% YoY, indicating weak underlying demand, it noted.

Also Read: Eicher Motors stock jumps 7% to record high, crosses 4,000 mark; here’s why

In November, total volumes saw a YoY increase of 26-31% for Hero MotoCorp , TVS Motor Company, and Bajaj Auto, and 13-16% YoY growth for Eicher Motors (Royal Enfield) and Mahindra and Mahindra. Maruti Suzuki posted a modest 3% YoY growth, whereas Ashok Leyland and Tata Motors experienced a decline of 2-3% YoY.

Also Read: Bajaj Auto stock crosses 6,000 mark for the first time; up 66% in CY23 so far

Bajaj Auto, TVS, and M&M surpassed the brokerage estimates, while Hero MotoCorp and Eicher Motors met the expectations. However, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, and Ashok Leyland fell short of the brokerage estimates.

 

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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Updated: 05 Dec 2023, 03:51 PM IST

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